Valken Army Mobilizes

As the regulars know Mr. Curious keeps his (over large left) ear to the ground when he's not creeping dark alleys or peeping through grimy windows into smoke-filled rooms. Well, yesterday's stampede nearly deafened him. With his head still ringing (and in between fits of laughter) he itemized the deployment of the Valken army from friendly media resource to retail and sales agents all the way down the line to scenario team players unleashed in a coordinated attempt to raise as much hell as possible--and incidentally position themselves as the aggrieved as well as the friend of the little guy. (The irony of which is lost on those who don't know their PB Industry history.) Why is Roger Delta-Tango cursing out the PSP on Facebook when he and his cronies spend less time outside of the woods than Bigfoot?
My point isn't that there aren't any paintballers out there sincerely put out by the PSP decision not to allow Valken paint sales. There surely are. But that's not all there is to it. The effort was orchestrated from start to eventual finish. (Nor is this a first for the PB Industry other than how rapidly and vociferously the onslaught came. Gotta love social media.) My other point is that it's one thing to be justly upset and another to simply play the fool.
That said VFTD does not mean to minimize the "real world" result. The impact at ground level is that there are some competitive teams out there that won't have the cheaper paint available to them or they will choose not to play in the PSP. And that is a lose lose for both the teams and the PSP.
However, the reality of this situation goes deeper. It's origins are part of the industry's hothouse history and long-standing animosities. On the field all of us are players. Not necessarily equals but all players. Off the field there are a lot fewer players and it is frequently difficult to determine just what game they are playing.

Rumor du Jour: PB Makers Push Merger

This was the perfect time to drag out this hoary old chestnut 'cus otherwise I had nothing. (Title is link to ProPaintball story. Thanks, guys!) This particular rumor is fast becoming a tourney paintball tradition, like watching the annual broadcast of 'A Christmas Story' or 'It's a Wonderful Life' during the holidays. Oddly, it seems the less likely it is to be true the more credence it gets from the riff-raff. (That would be you people.) The first couple of times the rumor made the rounds it was both quasi-true and quasi-believable. You see, once upon a time (around the time the talk of NPPL 3.0 rising Phoenix-like from the ashes of Pacific Paintball's bankruptcy began to entice a number of pro teams) the paint giants very likely could have enforced a one national league only policy. They had grumbled about it before but nothing ever came of it because they (the paint giants) were also locked in competition amongst themselves and none of them trusted the others enough to believe any bargain made would hold. (Probably because they were all trying to figure out to gain an advantage in the process.)
When this rumor first appeared the paint giants also had something they don't have anymore. Leverage. Okay, they have some but nothing like what they once had because their leverage was predicated on cash money. You see, the price of doing business has changed. Back in the (hay)day the paint giants took loses to be showcased at the biggest events and considered it part of the cost of doing business. Not so much anymore. Not that they're making money at the big events but how much it costs them matters now. As does how much they are willing to pay for the privilege. Back when the paint giants were putting six figures plus into a league they had (some) leverage. Today, not so much. They pay considerably less and consequently have less leverage.
Keep in mind they (paint giants) continue to compete against each other, too. If giant B sponsors league X now giants A & C have to decide if they need to counter that effort. That is a difficult environment in which to agree on much of anything.
Interestingly enough there is one place the paint giants retain very serious leverage and that is with sponsored teams. Despite the fact most teams get less paint than used to be the case it is of critical importance to the survival of many teams. The downside the paint giants would face to throwing their weight around with sponsored teams is that many teams participate in one league only and those that get more exposure by playing more are at a premium. The trend has been less about controlling who plays where than it has been maintaining a portfolio of teams for the least amount of sponsored paint.
There have also been times when the leagues were serious about possible mergers. That seems less likely as well because the core question is what does each side bring to the table? NPPL 3.0 doesn't offer much other than demands. It doesn't bring the dominate format. Or truckloads of the infrastructure of putting on a traveling tournament. Or ranks of loyal teams. Or an infusion of cash. Mostly it would bring a bunch of teams that feel entitled to a piece of the pie. Would the PSP be better off after merging with the NPPL?

Is it possible some of the big industry players are grousing again? You betcha. Does it mean anything? Not much. Is it possible a league has been making discreet inquiries about the possibility of discussing a merger? It's happened before. Is there a chance something will come of it this time around? (If there is a this time around.) I don't see it happening because I don't see how the pieces fit together beneficially for all concerned. Still, this Paintball and stranger things have happened.

Interpreting History

This post picks up where, Playing Pin the Tail on the Donkey, left off. I'ma take all the numbers, facts & figures (plus maybe a few extras) and mix them altogether in order to frame the Big Picture of paintball's last decade (or so.) In the past the highlights of my paintball commentary was in predicting the future--at which I have been depressingly successful if I do say so myself--and if I won't say it, who will? Oddly, I'm less comfortable with this hindsight approach but I'm close to convincing myself (at least) that I've got a handle on what happened and why. Go ahead and poke holes in the interpretation of the past I'm going to suggest. Have at it. I'm only highlighting certain data points and you may give more import to other things. One reason is because there's lots more basic info I'm not throwing into the discussion right now; like Am team numbers, the division breaks amongst the ams over time, the cost of entry, the total teams playing when both leagues are combined, the impact of classification rules, etc. Could some of that data change one's perception? It might very well. This isn't intended to be the definitive word (despite the fact I'm always right.) It's intended as a baseline, a starting place, a means for having a vaguely intelligent conversation.

Chronology: Competitive paintball exploded.
This coincided with and/or was driven by the move out of the woods, electronic markers, concept fields, a rapidly expanding market of new players, traditional formats (10-man & 5-man) were still played and shrinking retail paint prices.
Industry got slammed when the growth spurt suddenly stopped. (The critical question here is did sales go flat immediately or did they decline against expected growth? And how long after the rapid growth did sales actually fall behind past sales peaks?) Elements of industry begin competing directly with traditional retail outlets.
This is also the era of corporatizing PBIndustry which brought different management philosophies & goals into play within the competitive environment. The leadership and value of competitive paintball was no longer assumed. Sponsorship turns a corner and begins to decline in real dollars.
Xball is conceived as the Sport of Paintball designed for a TV audience.
The TV Wars begin. The result is competing leagues (NPPL & PSP) driven by shifting priorities (and concomitant expenses) only indirectly related to putting on MLP events.
The pro ranks are divided by the NXL and the NPPL is the beneficiary of all the burgeoning 10-man teams unwilling, uninterested, unable to make the leap to Xball.

So what happened? Here goes.
PBIndustry was caught ill-prepared when the growth years suddenly stopped. For whatever reason even the incoming transnational corporates failed to manage the transitions successfully except (so far) KEE.
Xball succeeded in turning tournament paintball into sport. That success has had some unintended consequences.
The TV Wars squandered the enormous base of competing teams with redirected resources and in the NPPL's failure to sustain a profitable series.
The Sport of paintball raised the bar for everybody (eventually) and as a result has pushed out of competitive paintball some number of players unable--for various reasons--to meet its demands.
5-man paintball remained vital until the last year to 18 months.
Local and regional competitive paintball has also declined--although the declines appear to vary in different areas of the country.
The impact of the housing bubble was felt most severely initially in competitive paintball strongholds like Cali & Florida.
The general economy remains in an extended recession (at best).

What's important here. (Well, d'oh! all of it in one way or another but --)
One--Xball (Race 2) isn't going anywhere. Despite the fact I am convinced that Xball drove our demographic down and a lot of pre-existing tourney players to 7-man (and out of competition) there is a dedicated core willing to do what it takes to play competitive paintball as sport.
Two--5-man has been amazingly resilient until the last year. 5-man is the heart & lungs of tourney paintball. Through years of being second class competitors (back in the day) and rising entry fees the national scene continued to benefit from a robust 5-man turnout
Three--5-man began to decline on the local level before real weakness appeared in national events. This is the result of pressing to integrate bread & butter tourney ball into the national scheme and raising the bar to basic participation too high.
Four--There's a significant number of former tourney ballers not competing.
Five--If the rumors of operating in the black this season are true the NPPL has a pared down tournament formula that is more sustainable in this economic environment.

Having gone long (again) the next post will look at possible answers.

Playing Pin the Tail on the Donkey

If you're confused by the title, no worries, it's a cultural reference to a kid's party game. I have no idea if it's even played anywhere anymore but it was when I was a kid. (Maybe when my kids were kids, too.) The idea is you put a large picture of a tailless donkey on the wall and give each child a turn at pinning a separate tail onto the donkey. The catch was you had to do it blindfolded and then you were spun around until you were dizzy and disoriented. Hilarity ensued. That's kinda how I feel about most of the efforts to "fix" competitive paintball. Even when the discussion is thoughtful and interesting--as it has been the last few days. We're outta the loop when actual decisions get made and the decision-makers are being tugged left, right and sideways desperately hoping they don't make a (nother) mistake.

The WC numbers I mentioned the other day don't prove anything. May even have multiple likely sounding explanations but what I want to do is try and broaden the picture of competitive paintball we're all looking at. In 1997 WC had 67 10-man teams. In 1998 there were 80 10-man teams. In 1999 there were 87 10-man teams. In 2000 there were 117 10-man teams. In 2001 there were over 180 10-man teams and in 2002 there were more than 210 10-man teams. This is the period of time Cup left the woods, moved to Hyperball, then Airball. Electropneumatic guns became commonplace. Xball was introduced and the NPPL split.

In 2003/2004 the PSP offered both Xball & 10-man. In 2004 the new NPPL was averaging around 170 teams an event. 2005 was the first year Xball was the stand alone headliner at Cup with only 77 xball teams & 247 5-man teams. In 2005 the NPPL averaged around 200 teams an event and by the end of 2006 Pure Promotions was looking to bail. (Rumor had it both leagues were losing money. These were also the days of the Race 2-TV.) 2006 saw 131 xball teams & 235 5-man teams participate. 2007 was the peak for xball teams at 160 with a 10% drop in 5-man teams to 212. 2008 had 138 xball teams & 195 5-man teams. (In Pacific Paintball's worst year they had more teams competing on average per event than the latest incarnation of the USPL/NPPL.) 2009 saw xball decline to its second lowest stand alone total of 125 along with still shrinking 5-man total of 183. 2010 had 134 xball teams while 5-man fell off the table dropping to 118. There's some facts & figures. Here's some more.

Bottom drops out on years of streaking growth as industry sales go flat. Fall of 2006 the PMI/NPS merger is engineered creating KEE. Jarden buys K2 in 2007 after K2 struggles with the paintball division it began putting together with the Brass Eagle purchase in what, 2003. By 2006 unification talks between the the two major leagues isn't a whispered rumor but an annual event on the end of season calendar as an intransigent industry demands action yet refuses to back one league or the other despite claiming dire economic consequences.

Since I'm running long I'll leave the analysis of the data to y'all--for now. And I'll pick it up again first of next week.