CPL meltdown?

A quick aside before I get started with the actual subject of this post: I find the predictable lament from a portion of the paintball community at the demise of another pro team almost ironic. They mourn the loss of a particular favorite but somehow seem to fail to grasp the larger implications for pro paintball generally. At the same time how many of the same people dismiss the NPPL which is, like it or not, the only hope for continuity in the pro division--at least insofar as things are organized right now. Regardless of what one might think of some of the teams, the scale of the league, the intentions of the owners, the format, etc. Joy isn't the first and won't be the last.

Word of the Joy Division retirement from the ranks of pro teams probably couldn't have come at a worse time for the Millennium Series and its premier division, the CPL. Each season the CPL relegates the two bottom teams back to the SPL while promoting the top two SPL teams. At least that's how it's supposed to work. Keeps everyone working hard, something to play for and so on. Except as I recall last season there were a few instances of teams who earned promotion who chose not to be promoted. The MS then had to go down the list until they got some takers to fill the open spots. (Though as I recall that didn't include any CPL spots ... but I could be misremembering.) Regardless, it's going to happen this season.
The two CPL teams to be relegated are the Ducks & Comin At Ya. According to the formula they should be replaced by Art Chaos Moscow and Outrage Valence. Assuming both teams accept promotion that will still leave holes In the Bullets, Joy & Menace spots. That means 5 of 16 CPL teams will turn over this season. Nearly a third. More interesting is the fact that Menace is looking to sell their spot as is (apparently) their right. Does the same apply to Joy & Bullets even though both have formally announced they are done competing? If Menace can sell its spot why not Bullets and Joy? (Maybe they can.) Does Menace have to sell before next year's license fees come due? What if there are no takers? For one thing the CPL pool gets diluted as the MS offers the open spots around to any SPL takers. Relegation & promotion are made a mockery of--and how can the league begin to justify charging a licensing fee for something nobody is willing to buy? (The answer to that remains the apathy of the Euroteams to stand up and refuse to be squeezed but that's a separate topic.)
Last year's Millennium scramble revealed the cracks in the structure. This year the cracks are fissures and the league doesn't have enough plaster to hide what's happening this time around.

Last Word on Relegation

However the final decision from the NPPL shakes out it may not matter much in the larger scheme of things. Be it relegation and promotion or just promotion with no relegation or some one time only expansion to an even number of teams ('cus 18 + 3 = 21) or perhaps the NPPL might say that Philly abandoned their spot and consider them out while choosing not to relegate Dogs and Rage which would put the division at an even 20. And since nobody actually "owns" their spot (and the NPPL can, as a practical matter, do whatever they want) that would leave only one guy unhappy and solve a host of other problems. Admittedly that option would also leave a bunch of team owners more nervous than they already are (or ought to be.) Or who knows, they could opt for some absurd variant involving a clown car, a bunch of rubber noses and calliope music.
I find myself in substantial agreement with be smart's comments from the previous relegation post with regards what's coming. I doubt there will be any relegation though if they are gonna promote I think the pro division is better off also relegating and not being diluted with the addition of more teams (with the greater likelihood of drop-outs.) And for those who like predictions I'm predicting a pro division of 24 teams that never has 24 teams competing in any single event and ends the season around the old 18 teams mark, plus or minus 1 or 2.
The sponsorship issues are even worse in some respects than portrayed--there is little doubt with no direct league involvement in deals--that paint will be a critical issue next season for virtually all the pro teams. Beyond that a lot of the sponsors will delay committing themselves to new deals. The old window of time these things used to happen in no longer applies and teams will occasionally find themselves lowballed at the last minute with few, if any, alternatives but to accept. Beyond that some pro teams are gonna find themselves out in the cold.
In a related prediction: At Commander's Cup (Did the NPPL downplay the whole Cup thing compared to the Pure Promotions days?) there were 8 teams competing pro that are also NXL teams. (At the start of the year it was eleven.) I'm not seeing all eight in both leagues to start next year. Something between 3 and 6 teams competing in both is about right and if you want to pin me down I'm gonna be optimistic and say 5.
As for other decisions that will be made I expect four events but I have doubts about no entry, no prize package [in the pro division] (though it's been talked around) and I see some real problems trying to integrate Semi & D1 mostly related to classifying eligible players and dealing with relegated pros. It might however provide a rationale for restricting (or eliminating) future relegation. Not saying either one won't happen but the teams are ambivalent about aspects of the former and the later will be a problem. Largely because there's already resistance to moving up on the part of a fair number of teams for whatever reasons and top loading a *new* D1 with relegated pros won't be encouraging to most. Of course participation in the lower divisions is already soft.

*Here's a slightly o/t question: How many relegated pro teams competed the following season in semi-pro while maintaining a core roster?*

On the plus side that's not really the worst of it. One of these days I'll screw up my courage, put on my big boy pants and tell you what the NPPL is really all about. I won't be needing my Magic 8-ball (Try again later) nor will I be staring deeply into Mama Lambini's crystal ball. Call it a prediction. Call it a prognostication. Call it an outrage. Call it unbelievable.

Relegate This: Another Burning Question

Aight. The thing is I'm wondering if anybody but a relative handful of teams actually cares about this at all. It's a big deal, trust me, if you're playing for a pro spot or playing not to lose one but otherwise I'm beginning to think nobody else is all that interested. Sure, if asked most players will say it's good 'cus psychologically it keeps hope alive that anybody can play pro even if they know (like I know and you know) that it ain't true except with some extremely rare exceptions. Did I just hear somebody say, Greg Hastings? Or was that Tony Perez? (Ouch. Even I cringed a little. Man, that was cruel and totally uncalled for but still funny and I hate to say it but funny wins out.)
Do you think fans of paintball [all seven of them] would rather see Miami Rage or MOD? Do the Naughty Dogs have a bigger following than the second Impact team? Is the pro division really better off without Rage and Dogs?

So here's the burning question: Do you think promotion/relegation is an important part of the NPPL game and if so, why?

Relegate

Over at the new ProPaintball (Post title is the link. Cool, huh? Why the title? It's an automated feature for lazy bloggers, is why.) the kids from PBReserve are running a poll about the NPPL's promo/relegation system and I'm interested to see what happens--with the NPPL. That, and of course I have an opinion. Kinda goes with the territory.

Conceptually I like the current system just fine. However, I think there are some practical reasons not to do it. The first year or two there was a much healthier semi-pro division with established pro teams in the mix and a reasonable expectation that the teams being promoted were competitive. Currently the division is so weak I think it's hard to make the case the semi-pro competition is producing pro-worthy teams. Nor has the system encouraged developing teams to push for the next level as it's possible to count on both hands (minus a thumb) the number of teams that have competed for promotion over the course of the season.
Part of the relegation/promotion scheme is intended to force teams to be as competitive as possible all the time which ain't a bad thing. However, for the system to deliver it presumes a stable, active, maturing competition environment. And any way you measure it none of those factors apply. Promotion can only be viewed as valid if the upcoming teams are seen as having earned it and likely to be legitimately competitive. Personally I'm not convinced that being the best 3 of 9 proves much of anything. There is also the question of developing new talent. With few teams moving up the ranks and most of them with inconsistent (constantly changing) rosters if all that is really happening is mostly a giant game of musical chairs for many of the same players or an actual dilution of the competition then promo / relegation isn't working as envisioned. Nor is it a system in harmony with a developing pro league. From my perspective what you want is consistency and continuity--and playing musical teams is counterproductive to those goals. Additionally neither the team nor the league structure is so well established or populated as to accommodate failing teams without concern particularly when the league not only makes no effort to help support its teams, it is actively in competition with them for ever more limited industry support. That's why I think the NPPL would be better off without promo / relegation.