Monday, July 11, 2011

Buy the Numbers?

A metaphoric rock, with a note attached, was lobbed--again metaphorically--through my front window claiming VFTD is biased in favoring the PSP. (The claim was in the note, not the rock.) It suggested that even if I criticized everybody I still liked the PSP best. (boo hoo, boo hoo) And went further to suggest I was helping in holding the NPPL down when I should acknowledge the inevitability of the 7-man future 'cus the numbers were (are) going up, attesting to the health & vitality of 7-man whereas the PSP is the league in decline. (That's the short version. The actual missive was mostly text speak and half-formed thoughts and if there was an ap for it I'm sure it would have had tear stains on it.)
As to the charges: yes, I prefer xball--even the watered down version we're currently playing. Yes, I criticize everybody, mostly, and mostly they all deserve it--at least when I do it. No, I'm not holding anybody down. For example, in Chicago VFTD had nothing to do with the shortage of refs, the placement of the fields, the bikini contest, the delay in posting scores or players (kinda, sorta, not really) headbutting one another.
Now that my crimes have been dealt with let's get to the interesting stuff. Is national 7-man on the rise and is the PSP in decline? Maybe, but probably not & yes. But of course the numbers game is dependent on which set of numbers one chooses to examine. If, for example, all the national 7-man results were included in the data set the current state of the NPPL would look bleak indeed compared to the peak years--much worse in fact than the PSP. But since this is a new NPPL (3.0) we're only looking at the numbers generated by this version of the league and even then it's hardly robust or indicative of growth. In 2009, the USPL year, the league averaged 64 teams an event not counting the Pros. [As stakeholders in the ownership of the league I'm considering their contributions as operating funds & investment as opposed to income generated by paying/participating teams. And while the same isn't true in the PSP as a matter of numbers I left the PSP pro teams out of the numbers as well.] In 2010 that average went up to 66 teams per event. [Participation totals in the NPPL 3.0 were calculated from info available at the NPPL website, npplnetwork website & Warpig via schedules, prelim scores and rankings. All PSP numbers came from APPA.] Through two events so far in 2011 the NPPL average is 85 teams. That number is however, somewhat misleading as it is skewed by the league's best attended event, HB, and only one other event. Further suggesting the numbers will even out over the season is that while the HB turnout was up slightly (less than 10) the Chicago turnout was on par with past second events. If DC is consistent with past DC turnouts then the reasonable expectation is that 2011 will look very much like '09 & '10 before it. And in the present economic environment there are worse things than stability and/or consistency--assuming the league isn't operating in the red.
If we were to look at the entirety of the PSP's numbers we would discover, in the old NPPL prior to the separation, a rising trend from the late 90's that peaked, in real numbers, at the last 10-man led World Cup. With the transition to Xball numbers dipped and then began to rise again until the economic downturn which saw participation numbers begin to decline again. Over the last three (2 and a half) seasons the PSP saw a precipitous drop between 2009 and 2010. In 2009 the average turnout was 193 teams per event. [Let's backtrack for a moment into 2008. It was the last year with 5 events and the average was 185 teams per event counting all five. If the fourth event is removed from the calculation the number jumps to 201. A case can thus be made that '09 saw an improvement over '08 or at worst a modest decline. It might be enlightening to review the changes made between the '08 & '09 seasons as in the first case the league temporarily reversed the decline and the second case suffered a significant loss. Just a thought.] In 2010 the PSP's average was 142. So far in 2011 it's 130. As the 2011 numbers were likely somewhat misleading in the NPPL's case they are also probably misleading here as well. The reason is that in direct comparison of event to event from last year to this both of this year's PSP events are up (slightly) over last year's individual event numbers. Remember, the PSP numbers don't include pro turnout to keep the comparisons equal even though the PSP pro teams do add to the league's revenues.

Do you buy the numbers? It's clear to me the NPPL turnout isn't going anywhere in any significant way despite the incomplete '11 numbers. And only time will tell if the PSP's decline is stabilizing. In raw numbers the PSP still holds better than a 2 to 1 advantage in participation over the NPPL. So there you have it: another case of poor old Baca holding an MLP series down. Strong like bull.

17 comments:

Don Saavedra said...

Baca, why do you hate freedom?

Baca said...

So it was you! I should have known.

Anonymous said...

Is it really holding someone down if you just happen to be standing near a crippled old man who has fallen and can't get up?

Even if you tried to help, he's going to die soon anyway.

Missy Q said...

So people come to your blog-page, a page where you're unapologetically stating your own views, and then complain? Ridiculous. It's not like you're an accredited news syndicate like CNN or Fox, and expected to put across a fair and balanced representation of the facts like those guys do....

Anonymous said...

I love you Owen. Black girl from Harlem or white guy with impeccable teeth from the UK doesn't matter.

Baca,

The real question is do you support the NPPL? It seems like you are the first to offer complaints on both league. As a member of Damage who has a stake in the league... do you offer solutions on how to fix things in a financially viable solution for the league? Are you given that opportunity? Or do you really just not care either way and enjoy to vent? I love your posts and thoroughly enjoy following your blog. I was on your initial distribution list after PGI. I would love to see someone with your insight have more impact on the decision making of the league in regards to officiating, rules, ect. I think you have an opportunity to make an impact if you choose to. Just think a few things go right you could be the next Tony!!

Baca said...

Anon,
Impeccable teeth? Maybe if bird calls is your hobby.

The next Tony? I can only dream.

Re: the serious stuff. (What a buzzkill.) How to answer that. I support the concept of the NPPL. Is NPPL 3.0 the right vehicle? Maybe, maybe not. Have I done a few things I don't talk about? Yes. Has anything I've talked about--from the PGi days to the present--proved to be influential in any way? What am I supposed to say? I do what I do and anybody who wants to talk to me about anything knows where to find me.

Anonymous said...

Is it even possible for NPPL to provide both a good product for its customers and be financially viable? They don't seem to have enough customers to do both, and since 7-man is a a dead format, they're not going to get any more either.

That's the real problem NPPL has. You can play some flavor of RaceTo/XBall everywhere. The only place you can play 7-man is in NPPL and in a handful of small leagues on the west coast.

It probably doesn't help that the people pushing 7-man are the same people who seem to think - or at least be willing to tell others - that electronic guns are shooting semi-auto. So on top of all of 7-man's other problems, it appears the people pushing it are either intentionally deceitful or just plain incompetent.

Either way, it appears anyone not still in the 7-man reality distortion field - and that would seem to be including more and more of the sponsors - has realized that 7-man is dead, the NPPL zombie not withstanding.

Anonymous said...

Hi Baca,
because of your ideas and point of views that most of the time I do not share, i would love to have you as a Millennium board member.
Not doubt you have a brain and i wish we had a lot guys like you in our paintball world.
By the way about numbers, Paris Disney Millennium event is already full 10 weeks before the event with 152 teams registered and paid!
The Millennium will probably open his registration for 10 more teams but will not take more.
we are speaking of 162 teams playing Race 2 format. 16 playing race to 5, 110 race to 4 and 36 race to 2 during 3 days on only4 fields with day light!!!!

Baca said...

Anon #3
As you noted the format is a problem because it no longer has widespread grassroots appeal. I'm not sure a modest budget is a problem though when you deliver a modest product. What it fails to do is offer enough profit to build. The other core problem isn't that the people involved don't care about the quality of the events it's a)nobody's full time year round responsibility and b)the league is a means to an end--as it always has been. Under those circumstances it's easy to lose sight sometimes of what's important--at least from a customer/participant perspective.

Anon #4
Thank you, I think. Although sitting on the MS board strikes me as more like penance than anything else. :-)
There is no doubt the league is highly experienced in the logistics of putting on a traveling paintball tournament on a grand scale. And the league did an amazing job filling all (or most of) the gaps in the locked divisions during the past off season. And they also did the prudent thing prior to this season when they decided to cap the events.
However not everything is rosy. The cap numbers are well below the turnouts of seasons past. M5 is dead leaving the question of will there be enough new teams coming in willing to jump directly into D3? And while the league pulled in new teams and talked others into moving up divisions they have tossed their nets about as far afield as they can go--and if the recent trend in team attrition continues there will be new holes to fill and no teams pretty soon.

Missy Q said...

Can something be both 'totally alive' (with events running) AND dead, at the same time? Either the events are a hoax (they aren't), or 7-man isn't as 'dead' as everyone on here reckons everyone else should realise...

Unless of course a format can be alive&kicking and dead simultaniously, in which case ignore the above point.

As far as the semi-auto-thing goes, while I agree in principle that it's a fxcked up situation, the league isn't cheating, the players are ('gasp - the outrage!'). You may think that the league is incompetent in the ruling, but surely you must concede that the players are the deceitful ones? How does the league get to be deceitful in this situation?

I'm no fan-boy (anymore) but I don't think the NPPL is doing anything other than try to run a business, same as the other guys. Why should they stop running that business just because the pro-PSP people want them to? There was a time not so long ago that the shoe was on the other foot. People have such short memories.

Baca said...

Missy
Obviously it isn't dead but it's not as alive and vital as it may appear. (Crunching the numbers of crossover players has, in the recent past, left the NPPL at a considerable disadvantage in unique players.) And there is no grassroots to build up from nor any real capacity within the league to help make that happen. Can they continue? Sure. To what purpose? Another shot at TV? Only if they sell off another share of the league to get the money to do so.

As to the gun issue it is incumbent on any league offering competitive paintball to have rules and regulations that, to the best of their ability, provide a fair game. The NPPL's failures when it comes to the "semi-auto" issue has never been about the rules but about accomodating some percentage of their core players. Blame the players all day long and nothing changes. Hold the league accountable and there's a chance to correct the problem.

Missy Q said...

To what purpose?

I think the purpose, as seen by the people running the league, is a flashback to the pre-PPP days of the NPPL (I can never keep up with all your versions, but this would probably be V1). Seems the owners wanted to re-create the league in the original NPPL image, so the teams hold some ownership in it, which in fact is what you've been pushing for years. I think (assume) that's the purpose, rather than 'getting on TV'. I don't have much of a line into those guys though, so who knows..

Anonymous said...

There's no reason NPPL should choose to stop running their business if they still want to.

Whether they'll be able to continue to operate is a different question.

Baca said...

Missy
Really?
We have debated this before but the separate NPPL has always been about parlaying the series into something more, something bigger, mostly something televised. (Though I will grant the original guys first wanted to prove they could do it better, too--but only for so long.)

Anonymous said...

Baca,
I still believe you do not know at all the European market and the structure we have in place.
M5 will probably disapear in 2012 from the millennium series for several reasons.
One of them is that M5 teams (5man) are playing their national and local league and the Millennium gets the best of them which usually are teams from D3 and above.
Most of the teams in open division (D2 and d3) are doing the entire season (around 50%) which leave the choice to the millennium to lock soon theses divisions.
The goal of a league like the millennium or the PSP should not be to try to get as many teams as possible but the best of the best in each caetgory.
It does not make any sense to have divisions with 4 or 5 teams like we can see at the PSP.
The Millennium could have a pump division and will get at each event around 15 to 20 teams but it should not be the goal of an international league. Quality instead of quantity should be the target.
The Millennium helps the national federation to
grow their own market and not the other way round.
This allow to have a very strong base in Europe with national federations with have today between 300 to 500 teams!
I can not wait to see you at the WC to discuss politics and share our different point of view

Baca said...

Anon
I do not, in principle, disagree with your general point of view. (It's why I have long advocated regional league development over here with the longer term goal of the regions feeding into a limited national system.)
And you may very well be correct. I still think the jury is out however and I base that on declining MS participation from places like Germany. They have a very organized and active national event scene and in recent years as that has become more coherent German team participation in the MS has declined. Will that turn around at some point? Could very well but it doesn't seem to me to be a foregone conclusion just yet.
I look forward to a friendly conversation at Cup. I can even bring an interpreter if I need him. ;-)

Don Saavedra said...

I find it fascinating how much interest there is in the idea of a "merger." Stories about stuff that could actually happen barely cause a ripple...