Monday, June 24, 2013

Chicago Predictions Revisited

Before the rumors spread any further, no, I'm not changing the name of the blog to conform with the new "deadboxes." Ain't gonna happen. Think about it; 'Peeking out the doorway', 'Hiding behind the air mattress', not so much. Besides, it's self-evident the league gave this decision so much thought next event we might be using shower curtains or portable storage units.
While I'm at it how can I not revisit the International Sup'Air Conspiracy, too? Just 'cus they's red don't mean those lame bunker pieces aren't the same things as the inflatable "city" stuff the league used for WC 10-man. And this after Sup'Air, at virtually every step, does exactly what the league doesn't want and yet the PSP rolls over every time. Are we talking blackmail or a secret ownership percentage .. or something worse?
Enough fun--it's time to review my VFTD pre-Chicago predictions to see how I did.

More than 90% of the pro games will end on points scored and not on the time clock running out. And that includes Challengers.
Okay, things looked good on Friday (80%) but in the end I missed on this one. The Champions ended up at around 63% of matches to score--which wasn't great but also got me wondering if points scored went up. So I took a look at the last WC data. 50% of matches went to score and of those that didn't the average score of the two teams was 8 points. In Chicago the average was 8.6 points. By the numbers the differences don't seem all that dramatic. There were plenty of long points in Chicago and I'm beginning to think the only difference were the blowout points caused by eliminations off the break. (More on that in another post.)
Challengers almost came through for me with 85% of their matches going to score.

 By tourney's end a first time team will join the Champions bracket for the next event.
Correct. Top Gun Union.

Three of the four semifinalists in D1 will be different from last event.
Correct. MAO--VCK, Wolfpack, Florida Kings & Aftermath. Chicago--VCK, Revo, Boom & Grad Moscow

All the fields will run ahead of or easily maintain their projected schedules.
Technically wrong given the extended weather related delay on Friday but in the sense I meant--that matches would run quickly and generally to score--the jury remains out. A review of divisional scores should provide some idea though.

There will be at least two injuries on the pro fields that knock players out of the event.
Unclear. I am aware of at least two injuries but only one definitely knocked the player out of the competition and hopefully it won't prove to be a longer term concern. This prediction wasn't predicated on my secret desire to see players hurt but to highlight the poor conditions of the CPX fields which, if anything, appear to be getting worse over time.

As many divisional teams as will love this layout and event will be matched by those who wanta return to the status quo.
Unknown. We may have a better idea over the next few days and weeks.

Dynasty will not make it three in a row.
Correct. But they remain at the top of the heap and deservedly so.

As for winners amongst the comments--that is a big no go, Joe. Maybe next time. And maybe next time a few more of you lazy slackers will give it a go. Kudos though to Cade X for shooting down my 90% claim and to Joey of Paintball Real Talk who picked the Champions going down by name as well as the Challengers coming up.


Chuck said...

Baca Loco = "Carnac the Magnificent" of paintball. ;)

MikeM said...

Logan Landry, D2 Vipers, dislocated foot
London Lewis, D1 FL Kings, sprained or torn MCL

One of our young players "faceplanted" and couldn't play the next few points.

Which injuries occured on the Pro field?

Anyone else see any?

Baca Loco said...

On Friday a Challenger (I think) dove into snake during early webcast game and cut up the back of his hand.
And in relegation game a TonTon injured a knee severely enough he had to be assisted off the field and the scale of the immediate swelling suggested it wasn't good.

Baca Loco said...

May the fleas of a thousand camels infest the tent of your enemies.

Anonymous said...

I hope the rumours of you guys leaving the NPPL are true. You have no reason to stick around after they stiffed you.