(Rumored) Mass D1 Exodus to the Pros

ProPaintball posted the original rumors earlier in the week. (Link in the title.) Just another example of the dangers posed by swilling Four Loco if you ask me. (Assuming there's anything to the rumors.) If you guessed that I'm unlikely to make any new friends among the ranks of the D1 teams with this post you're probably correct. And I'm only tackling this topic because there are a couple of interesting (related) issues in play that I really want to discuss. From a purely selfish point of view I say the more the merrier. Come on, kids, go for it. The truth is none of them have demonstrated any potential for competing on the pro level--and when I say compete I mean compete, not just show up and get your ass handed to you over and over. Can that be a learning experience? Sure it can but no where is it guaranteed, especially in the pro division, that lessons learned necessarily translate into improved players or teams.
But let's back up for a second and define being competitive. Is it simply showing up and taking your lumps? I don't think so (and it's a subject I'll be returning to shortly.) Is it earning the respect of your fellow competitors? Or proving you belong? And if so, then how does one go about doing that? Is a team competitive that always finishes in the bottom half? In tournament paintball the measure of a team's merit has always been about playing on Sunday, moving beyond the prelims and playing for a chance to win. So check out the teams in the Pro division and see who is making Sunday more often than not. They definitely belong. Apply the same principle to D1. For some of the teams its their first year at D1. A couple of them jumped from D3. But there's more to it. Divisional play is also where you (better) learn how to win. If you look at the current D1 ranks only one team has any consistent history of winning. (Notice how good a job I'm doing not naming names. Frankly I don't need the grief. And I haven't used the expression "sucks" once. Yet.) The other factor at play is that the old APPA classification system as applied to the PSP intentionally dumbed down the upper divisions of play with the greatest impact on D2 & D1. (I wrote about this extensively back in 2008 & 2009. The Logan's Run series of posts wouldn't be a bad place to start if your interested.) The fact is the general level of play in both D2 & D1 have yet to recover and as a consequence aren't as difficult as they once were--at least at the top of the bracket(s). The divide between the pro ranks, by and large, and D1 is greater today than it's been in years. And then there's this other thing: nobody on a D1 team who isn't already ranked pro or semi-pro (does that still exist?) has a clue whether or not they are capable of playing at that level--and no, your friends, family and teammates opinions don't count 'cus they don't know any better than you.

Which brings me, in a roundabout way, to what I called back in 2006 The Era of the Pro Loser. (Link is to Dead Tree Archive.) When Pro teams began to play only Pro teams it significantly changed the dynamic on a lot of "Pro" teams and altered forever the perceptions of the Pro teams in the eyes of divisional players and fans. It also introduced a concept, that as yet bears no real significance, but will the day after money turns competitive paintball into a sport. (Should such a day ever come.) And that concept is parity.
Once upon a time Pro teams proved themselves by routinely devouring the lesser ranks in preliminary play so that what happened head-to-head seldom affected the general perception of a given Pro team. After all, they crushed everybody but the other Pros. Sure, fans would make distinctions between Pro teams but not like they do today. And, as a consequence, the Pro teams of yesteryear didn't view themselves entirely through the lens of Pro-to-Pro only competition either. Middle of the pack Pros were perfectly respectable because they were acknowledged to be better than Joe Average (and Joe Am.) They proved it every tournament with rare exceptions.
Today's Pro environment is a considerably harsher place. Not only are many Pro players perceived differently they inevitably begin to perceive themselves differently too. And the reason for both these changes is losing. In a closed division when somebody wins, somebody else loses. (Brilliant, I know!) But it is particularly telling amongst the pro ranks because there is no where else to go and in the same way winning breeds success so too losing breeds failure. It is psychologically bruising and will tear a team apart faster than anything other than their bankroll disappearing. It's different for every player but there is a finite window in which to succeed before the player becomes damaged goods. It's why some older (not to say over the hill) players stick around. It's why teams bring in fresh blood. It's why teams with well regarded players never get over the hump. Losing takes it's toll. It's why every D1 team contemplating making the big move needs to think long and hard before making that commitment. Any team that makes the move before they learn how to win is stacking the odds in favor of failure. Any team that makes the move without internal and external leadership, confidence & determination is almost doomed to fail. Bravado is not confidence and there is no replacement for winning. Every player and team that steps up to the Pro challenge always says they are prepared to learn the necessary lessons the hard way but I would bet good money that most of them are utterly clueless. If I were counseling D1 teams on how to handle their bidness--and I am--I would strongly encourage every team learn the lessons that can be learned in D1 first and position yourselves to succeed as best you are able because once you make the move the clock starts ticking on your dreams. And the odds are you will fail.

A New Pro Paradigm

For those who'd like to cut to the chase (cause this is really long) go down to the START HERE and read from there. Then you can come back and look over the foundational arguments and the alternatives later. Slackers.

If, as has often been bandied about, the pro teams are in some senses being carried by the league(s) then my question is; why? Why does the PSP pay out of pocket to keep the NXL going? (While we can debate the dollars, at best--at best--the NXL may come close to breaking even) And if the Pro Division in the NPPL is no better than a break even bracket (between reduced entry fees and prize payout it's probably a net loser) why is so much emphasis put on the Pros and why isn't anyone talking about "fixing" the league(s) by dumping the deadbeats and losers?
Stop spluttering and answer the question.
Don't get me wrong. I'm not advocating dumping the (pro) deadbeats and losers. That would leave me in a bad place. (And I don't buy the conventional wisdom anyway.) But, in order to address the issues confronting the pro divisions it's important to begin at the beginning, with our assumptions. Without offering the answer there are a couple of things that can be said that reflect the current thinking. (Irrespective of its practicality or rationality.) The pro divisions aren't simply about dollars and cents. The leagues do assign a value to the pro divisions that isn't strictly represented by the bottom line. A significant element of that perceived value is in seeing the pro teams (and players) as the epitome of competitive paintball and the public face of competitive paintball and the likely wedge into wider mainstream acceptance and recognition.
What assumptions underlie this thinking?
Try these: The pro division (and players) represents the best of the sport; makes the best argument in favor of paintball as sport; inspires and motivates players at every level of competition. Which is good for the league and for paintball. The pro division (and players) is the draw to compete on a national level. Which is good for the league.
The pro division (and players) is the primary marketing vehicle for competitive paintball and PBIndustry. Which is good for the paintball, the league and PBIndustry.

We'll come back to the assumptions and their validity in a minute. But first--
Let's review the state of the pro teams today. Teams are failing. More are expected to follow. The cost of competing is overwhelming a (probably significant) percentage of the remaining teams. Everyone involved is concerned and uncertain where equilibrium is to be found. And the one critical factor that hasn't been taken into account is that the league(s) are directly competing with the teams for increasingly scarce sponsorship dollars. Reread that last part. Let it sink in. Today's post is brought to you by the word counterproductive. Say it with me boys and girls, counterproductive. Now let's play a game of 'What If' with the NXL. (I'm not gonna deal with the NPPL only because I think the option offered in the "Brave New PB World" posts could work for them but their situation is complicated by a number of factors including money already spent and a lack of nationwide support for their format.) Back to the NXL.
WHAT IF the PSP kills it? It's gone. In its place a PSP Open division that operates like any other division. What's the result?
That depends.
On a lot of things that never were particularly relevant to the teams or division. The more expensive scoreboard. Does it stay or go? Grandstands. Stay or go? A dedicated field. Stay or go? The NXL refs. Stay or go? Big prize money. Stay or go?
The first point is this: Calling the pro division the NXL and separating it from the other PSP divisions didn't make it more expensive nor did any action taken at the behest of the pro teams as a group. Every decision--let me repeat that--EVERY decision that added to the cost of running the NXL was predicated on one or more of the assumptions listed above and was made by the same peeps who now expect the NXL teams to pay for those decisions. I almost forgot. What would be the result if the PSP killed the NXL and put the pros in an Open division?
The league could operate the new division on the same cost/benefit calculus as all the other divisions, the pros would refuse to be gouged for entry and administration fees and everybody could reconsider their assumptions. SEE above.
Let's take it a step further. WHAT IF we do away with pros altogether? No more pro teams or pro players. The PSP to become four am brackets of xball (plus the 5-man stuff). D3 up thru Open. Everybody who was pro gets reclassed as Open or D1. Does it make any of the ex-pro teams or players any less skilled or accomplished than they when they were called pro? Of course it doesn't.
Point Two: There is nothing to be gained with a purely semantic restructuring unless it also involves a reappraisal of the assumptions above. (Even if the assumptions are invalid there is nothing gained in a simple semantic distinction.)
WHAT IF the assumptions are wrong? Then the sooner they are repudiated the better.
WHAT IF the assumptions are basically sound? Then they will factor in the future of competitive paintball--at some future time--but the issue confronting the leagues today is at what cost and can it be sustained. Pro football turned out to be a lucrative idea but even so teams and leagues failed in the process.

Right. Let's now take a moment to draw a few conclusions. The status quo seems unlikely to hold. If it doesn't how many pro teams go under in the next year or two and what would be the impact? At what point is the pro league really exclusive and at what point is it just a joke? However you might assess that I think it's fair to say that doing nothing will result in fewer pro teams. That leaves the league in the position to be proactive or to simply wait and see what happens next. In the wake of the lost pro teams ending the '07 season the PSP adopted some new rules and instituted format modifications in an effort to stem the tide. It wasn't enough. If they choose to act again they will have a variety of choices.
Alternative 1 is to "fine tune" the status quo and do a head count to see if they'll have a sufficient number of teams committed for next year. (Sufficient being the operative word.)
Alternative 2 is to reduce costs to the pro teams. As noted above the NXL is using the teams to pay for a league run the way the NXL wants it run. Perhaps they need to reconsider, economize and pass the savings on to the teams.
Alternative 3 is to fully integrate the pro division into the rest of the PSP and call it whatever you want.
WHAT IF the PSP seriously considers the radical alternative league structure presented in the 'Brave New Paintball World' series of posts?
The concept relies on a traveling Pro Circuit so the costs to the pro teams aren't reduced the way they would be for the am divisions playing regionally. However, the same potential cost savings that applied to alternatives 1 - 3 could also potentially apply to a Pro Circuit with regional leagues. But is it enough?

START HERE: (if you have a short attention span)
Remember when I claimed the pro teams were in competition with the league(s) for sponsorship support? (It's not the way everyone is used to thinking about the relationship but it is undeniable.) And that the NXL has set standards of operation to its liking and expects the competing teams to subsidize those standards? (That's either hubris or stupidity or both.) And it's definitely crazy. In this economic climate it's practically suicidal! What is required is a new Pro Paradigm. If the assumptions everyone makes about the pro level of play are basically sound and the leagues want to maintain a separate and dynamic pro division it must rethink how it does things--and it must have help.
The Pro Circuit relies on the league operating in cooperation with PBIndustry. The new Pro Paradigm includes the pro teams as integral parts of the whole. It acknowledges the teams as partners in the process instead of the current quasi-customer/quasi-marketing tool status most have today. The Pro Circuit means the league can focus on the core elements of promoting the partner members in PBIndustry and marketing competitive paintball to a wider audience using the showcase of the pro teams. And the best way to facilitate this is if everyone is working together toward a shared goal and with a common purpose. At a minimum it should be the Pro Circuit's responsibility to operate the pro events–not the pro teams to underwrite it. Depending on how inclusive the involvement of PBIndustry the potential exists to pool resources to support the pro teams. This would be possible because what the league is promoting is the Pro Circuit and the competing teams are the essential component of the circuit. And marketing the circuit would be a unifying effort and would only enhance the participating teams allowing them to function as both fan favorites and tools of league promotion. Virtually any option for how to structure the circuit in a nuts and bolts sort of way is on the table and only requires agreement to move forward. With specific regard to the teams themselves some of the issues to settle would be continued private ownership, a new franchise model or even league ownership or sponsor ownership of the teams (which could be shared in percentages among as many or as few sponsors as desired in a given case.) If not ownership then sponsorships could still be partially assigned by team predicated on relative values which could allow smaller sponsors a direct share of the overall marketing value. If you wanted to get really off the wall you could organize the teams geographically for real and draw rosters from the pools of regional players. Once you stop doing things the way they've always been done the possibilities are nearly endless. [As a practical matter it would be a tremendous amount of work but it all starts with the old vision thing.]
The fundamental goal is to create a sustainable model that both develops competitive paintball and showcases competitive paintball and does so in a cooperative environment that benefits everybody involved. And the final point is to stop competing amongst ourselves where it is counterproductive and work toward a model based on common interest that can more effectively utilize the dollars spent.

The Pro Dilemma

I've been here and done this before but the first time or two around this issue teams weren't already dead or dying. I'm hoping the rotting corpses of dead pro teams past might have made an impression on some folks in the meantime.
The status quo is not sustainable. NPPL has 17 teams today instead of 18 and the NXL has 11 instead of 12 and started the year with 12 instead of the previous year's 16. One might argue that the higher numbers were always impractical but that doesn't alter the body count.
The NPPL pro division is in better shape simply because it's cheaper to compete, to maintain a team, to practice, etc. than the NXL. However, the format and promotion that showcases NPPL pro paintball is in trouble. So it seems likely some formulation of the NPPL pro division will still be playing while the Super 7 tournament ship sinks but viable teams with no place to go are still out of luck.
The NXL problem is trickier. It's grossly expensive to run a pro xball team (compared to any other form of tourney paintball) and the competing teams are NOT operating on a level playing field. Franchise teams have a voice and a stake in what comes next and how it is organized (although that is really more a function of PSP ownership vs. non-ownership. Just ask Sergey.) Non-franchise teams are customers like everybody else. The PSP is in the black while the NXL struggles.
One league has a tournament series in danger of going belly up and one tournament series has a pro division in danger of shrinking into irrelevance. Let me be clear here for those willing to see the NXL shrink to 6 or 8 teams. STOP BEING MORONS! (Did I type that?) At some point the NXL stops being a pro division and devolves into a gigantic circle jerk and everybody stops paying attention because the league is suddenly no longer relevant.
And now for a short history break: the original NPPL was a response by the then pro teams to control their own destiny and they set-up a tourney structure that in essence used other teams to pay for the events and those teams showed up in order to have an opportunity to play the big name teams. We continue to use the same basic structure today. One incentive today is the opportunity to see the pro teams play. However, somewhere in there most of the pro teams turned into customers again. (Btw, I'm not suggesting that supporting the pro teams on the backs of the lower divisions was the ideal tournament model. In fact, something of the opposite.)
In the early period of sponsorship contraction the 'answer' was to tell pro teams to suck it up and go find some new sponsors. Which is, as far as it goes, a perfectly acceptable answer. Except when it doesn't work. Now it may be that Paintball can only afford so many pro teams which is also fair enough...
But then the question that needs to be asked: At what cost?
What if anything do the pro teams contribute to Paintball? If it's something important then maybe it isn't just the teams' problem, maybe it's the leagues' and paintball's problem, too.
One problem the teams have is that most of them are beholden to sponsors who have their own priorities which may or may not coincide with the team.
Meanwhile there are whispers and hints that peeps are talking about reducing the numbers of events in both leagues. Hmm, a 3 event "series". Is that really an answer? Let's see, this isn't working out so well so let's just do less of it. If that's such a good idea why don't we skip it altogether. Problem solved.
Realistically the pro teams can't unite in any meaningful way so the notion floated in Buffalo is a non-starter. And all the Buffalo Initiative would have meant anyway was that the teams choose to be the customers of one league instead of two (and a few of them have already made that choice.)
If the pro teams matter to either of the leagues or to paintball generally there needs to be another answer. Reunification might work but it isn't guaranteed to solve any of the core problems and the process could easily outlast any number of bubble teams. With reunification today's version of NXL Xball kills a few teams but any mixed format that doesn't offer the PSP and Xball a flagship league isn't gonna fly either. Or does reunification tie itself to a faltering format (or at least a faltering promotion)? All reunification would really do is cull the herd of pro teams all the sooner.
Seems pretty bleak, doesn't it?

Yeah, I know I promised to post up some alternatives, some possible answers and I haven't done it yet and I still haven't figured out how to archive dead tree material here either. Not to worry, it's coming, but between you and me what's the point?

A Tale of Two Leagues

One of the fascinating (and when I say fascinating I mean ironic) things about this season is the decisions made by the two leagues leading into the current season. If you heard last January that one of the leagues would offer to discount the Pro Division entry for an event who would you have assumed it was? Or that one of the leagues was discussing ways of shoring up participation in the lower divisions?
Instead, they got it bass-ackwards.
Super 7 has shown year-to-year a growing weakness in the lower divisions which are, as everyone knows, the critical revenue divisions and yet everything was business as usual. Although one might say the NPPL tried more of the same it doesn't appear to be working. Nor did last year's really bad idea of discounted entries. And I can't see your typical D2 team being particularly thrilled with discounts for Pros. At any rate whatever NPPL has been thinking with regards their player (customer) base their implementation hasn't turned things around.
PSP enjoyed its best year ever in '07 and they decide the thing to do is tweak the format across the board and charge the lower divisions more in '08. (It's a testament to the popularity of Xball that the '08 numbers to date aren't far off last year's but WC will determine just how good or not '08 turns out to be.) Of course they also tweaked the format for the Pros as well--the division that was really hurting--ostensibly to make it less expensive to compete. Trust me, it ain't no cheaper. Some teams may be using a bit less tourney paint but that's it. The only other savings are in practicing less.
To date the result is one league has a fairly strong Pro Division (though both have problems but for different reasons) with weak lower divisional support and the other is pretty strong everywhere but in their premier Pro Division.
Between the two I think the NPPL has the larger problem because I think their problems are predicated on the core assumptions of their promotion but if PSP doesn't take some decisive action on behalf of the NXL they may end up in the position of seeing how strong Xball is without a flagship division.

Extremely Paintball: Beyond Something or Other--the NPPL on FSN

That's pretty close, right? Truth is I couldn't remember exactly and I'm too lazy and impatient to wait for a couple of mouse clicks to get it right. Anyway, odds are you know what I'm talking about.
Anybody who has aspirations and hopes for the future of paintball as sport has to be glad paintball, of any sort, is on TV. And FSN isn't chopped liver. The larger focus this season on personalities is also, without doubt, a wedge to making paintball more accessible and potentially interesting to a wider audience. And, of course, the paintball being featured is the sort of paintball we prefer. It's all good, thank you NPPL and I wish there was more of it.
But...
Unfortunately there is a difference between intention and execution. Paintball on TV has a brief (disappointing) history of the best of intentions and every effort to get it right and yet--
end of the day not so much.
For this particular excursion into alienating my peers and betters I'm gonna focus on 4 specific characteristics of the current TV show.
Let's begin with the featured personalities. Great concept. The problems begin with the time alotted to the featured player. It's too short, it's too scripted and too constrained. As engaging and entertaining as Markus is asking the guys twenty questions and editing down an up close and personal look at the players mostly doesn't work. It's strained and in some cases it's painfully obvious certain players weren't chosen because they were expected to be good on camera.
Each episode has approximately 22 minutes to communicate what it wants to communicate. This season's shows are trying to show tourney action, explain the game, introduce some of the personalities of paintball, promote the events, mention the sponsors, offer some of the flavor and pageantry of the NPPL and package it all as the Next Big Thing. It turns out to be both too much and too little in the effort to try and cram everything paintball into each show.
Alas, as is now the norm the games themselves are reduced to incomprehensible snippets and cuts of paintball action stitched together, Frankenstein style, with voice over narration. Even when you know what you're looking at it's not particularly engaging. Hey, I'm sorry but it just isn't. I wish it was. This isn't a new problem, it's the original problem of filming and televising paintball and no new ground is being broken here.
Lastly, there is the esoteric and difficult to quantify Coolness Factor. Or, uh, actually the lack thereof. The show tries to be all things Paintball and it wants the presentation to be attractive, appealing, hip and cool. And that's just it. In trying to be hip and cool it's almost impossible to be hip and cool. (I will gladly admit this one is purely subjective but c'mon.)
Or, you know, it could be that paintball just isn't cool.

There you have it. If your first reaction is that old stand-bye "Why don't you go do it yourself if'n you're so smart" then you don't have a solid grasp on what smart means. If I were inclined to throwing good money after bad you'd sooner find me burning through fast women and faster cars.
On second thought maybe I'm being too hard on the NPPL/FSN crew. Maybe I'm just disillusioned by past efforts that for whatever reasons failed to fulfill the dream. Maybe I'm not seeing it because I don't believe anymore. But then I think to myself you can't manufacture excitement and sport on pure unadulterated hype--well, except for that whole X Games business.