Sunday, January 1, 2012
Burning Questions, 2012 Edition
Since December was Baca's Mailbag month at VFTD (the blog) everything else was either tweeted (@VFTD) or posted up on VFTD (the Facebook page). Try to keep up.
The first burning questions of 2012: (feel free to add your own)
If Impact sticks with their rumored plan to play only NPPL this season will their players be allowed to play elsewhere in the other leagues? And if so, who should play where?
Will there be an Aftershock in 2012?
How many pro teams fail to answer the bell at the start of the season?--(whenever that might be in individual cases.)
Will HydroTec finally roll out there water ball this year? Did you see the latest HydroTec video? [h/t Facefull on Twitter] Can you say desperately trying to remain relevant? Still, the sheet of half shells filled was kinda cool but I don't remember hearing a release date in there anywhere, did you?
Over in Euroland will there be as many defections from the closed division ranks as there were last year? And after scouring far and wide for replacements last year where will the new crop come from?
Monday, November 28, 2011
Outer Limits of Rumorology
The kids over at ProPaintball recently posted their latest player and team rumors and one of them included a reference to TBD. Rumor suggests the Legion will be returning to an all Russian roster next year and that leaves their American players without a team. And further that TBD (among others) is talking to J-Rab about joining Damage. To forestall a spate of J-Rab questions I'll tell y'all what I know. The team has been talking to Justin informally off and on ever since he played 7-man with us a couple years ago. And the subject has been discussed internally so as far as it goes the rumor is correct. On the subject of the Russian Legion generally there's been another rumor floating around since at least New Jersey PSP that has two of the Legion's home grown regulars retiring--at least from PSP competition. If that (and the Federov rumor) proves to be correct it could be a very different Russian Legion next year.
Hold the presses! One of the earliest rumored players in the Procaps sweepstakes is once again rumored to be back in the mix. Hint: it's a paintball company, d'oh! (That at present doesn't have paint-making capability.) I first heard this rumor during the holiday weekend and have as yet not been able to get additional sources to confirm. I'm mentioning it now because if accurate it makes the Procaps Sold post premature at best and wrong at worst. I find it hard to credit but who knows? (Of course it could be the GI Kidz jumped the gun and what was claimed to be a done deal was in fact the beginning of what was expected to be a done deal. And, yes, that means more than one of my sources for that rumor came from within. And I've since heard the GI brass attempted to put the fear of God or unemployment in their employees to keep their mouths shut in the future.) With the original GI buys Procaps rumor the initial source was a regular, and to-date impeccable source that was later confirmed by two other independent sources. (I even got a price--but decided to stay away from that.) The latest hasn't seemed to be as well sourced but ... hey, this is paintball so almost anything is possible I suppose. Regardless Procaps is still on the block.
And last and certainly least is not so much a rumor as a, oh I don't know, hopeful wannabe rumor? Btw, this is about the Millennium Series, sorta. In the past I've heard rumors about the licensing fees and entries suggesting that all teams aren't charged equally (This is news?)--and that plenty of people know it--but nobody will talk about it, particularly those gaining an advantage if it's true. But that isn't the latest. In fact that's old (old) news. The latest (also really a recycled rumor too) wannabe rumor is that the MS also cuts deals on sponsorships with industry partners--at least with certain industry sponsors. (Of course if you'd seen the sponsorship packet they put out each year and the prices you'd be amazed that anybody paid those prices.) This isn't really a rumor, it's an unsubstantiated complaint. And like the licensing business what it's really all about is that whatever group of participants are unsatisfied with the MS want somebody else to change things for them. So pretty much big time Europaintball as usual. So why did I mention this particular wannabe rumor? Because if there's any fire generating these puffs of smoke this is somebody's opportunity to make a real case. Or not. And if not, it remains bidness as usual--and after last year in the MS maybe that's not such a bad thing after all.
Monday, September 26, 2011
Musical Chairs
Rumor has it that at approximately the same time Aftershock (which decided to compete in the NPPL this year) presented their two Legend players, Damian Ryan & Brad McCurley, with an ultimatum of it's 'Shock all the time or it's nothing. Damian & Brad were playing with Legend before Shock decided to compete in the NPPL and in Damian's case before he was back on 'Shock's roster. (He played for Aftershock back in '06 & '07 if I remember correctly. Something like that anyway.) Apparently they chose nothing but not for long as both are now on Infamous's World Cup roster replacing the departed LJ & Marcello.
Mr. C doesn't know if that's going to leave Aftershock in a bit of a bind or not for Cup or if the move by Infamous is a stop gap measure or seen as something more permanent. Time, and Mr. Curious, will tell.
UPDATE: rumorology has it that it may even be premature to say that Infamous cut Marcello because the word on the street is he has torn up his knee again. (In fact may have done it prior to DC.) In which case he is defacto sidelined for the foreseeable future whether he's officially cut or not.
Thursday, September 22, 2011
Left Coast Rumble
Oh, yeah, you probably want to know who the rumored to have been cut players are. Word is it's LJ (Justin Schwartz), Marcello (Margot) & Bobby (Aviles.)
UPDATE: Justin from ProPaintball says he's heard it isn't official yet and that there will be a team meeting to discuss the issue. Thanks, Justin!
My spelling errors, with respect the player's names, has been corrected in Comments. I left the original post as is to minimize confusion in the comments section. Thanks.
Friday, July 1, 2011
(Rumored) Mass D1 Exodus to the Pros
But let's back up for a second and define being competitive. Is it simply showing up and taking your lumps? I don't think so (and it's a subject I'll be returning to shortly.) Is it earning the respect of your fellow competitors? Or proving you belong? And if so, then how does one go about doing that? Is a team competitive that always finishes in the bottom half? In tournament paintball the measure of a team's merit has always been about playing on Sunday, moving beyond the prelims and playing for a chance to win. So check out the teams in the Pro division and see who is making Sunday more often than not. They definitely belong. Apply the same principle to D1. For some of the teams its their first year at D1. A couple of them jumped from D3. But there's more to it. Divisional play is also where you (better) learn how to win. If you look at the current D1 ranks only one team has any consistent history of winning. (Notice how good a job I'm doing not naming names. Frankly I don't need the grief. And I haven't used the expression "sucks" once. Yet.) The other factor at play is that the old APPA classification system as applied to the PSP intentionally dumbed down the upper divisions of play with the greatest impact on D2 & D1. (I wrote about this extensively back in 2008 & 2009. The Logan's Run series of posts wouldn't be a bad place to start if your interested.) The fact is the general level of play in both D2 & D1 have yet to recover and as a consequence aren't as difficult as they once were--at least at the top of the bracket(s). The divide between the pro ranks, by and large, and D1 is greater today than it's been in years. And then there's this other thing: nobody on a D1 team who isn't already ranked pro or semi-pro (does that still exist?) has a clue whether or not they are capable of playing at that level--and no, your friends, family and teammates opinions don't count 'cus they don't know any better than you.
Which brings me, in a roundabout way, to what I called back in 2006 The Era of the Pro Loser. (Link is to Dead Tree Archive.) When Pro teams began to play only Pro teams it significantly changed the dynamic on a lot of "Pro" teams and altered forever the perceptions of the Pro teams in the eyes of divisional players and fans. It also introduced a concept, that as yet bears no real significance, but will the day after money turns competitive paintball into a sport. (Should such a day ever come.) And that concept is parity.
Once upon a time Pro teams proved themselves by routinely devouring the lesser ranks in preliminary play so that what happened head-to-head seldom affected the general perception of a given Pro team. After all, they crushed everybody but the other Pros. Sure, fans would make distinctions between Pro teams but not like they do today. And, as a consequence, the Pro teams of yesteryear didn't view themselves entirely through the lens of Pro-to-Pro only competition either. Middle of the pack Pros were perfectly respectable because they were acknowledged to be better than Joe Average (and Joe Am.) They proved it every tournament with rare exceptions.
Today's Pro environment is a considerably harsher place. Not only are many Pro players perceived differently they inevitably begin to perceive themselves differently too. And the reason for both these changes is losing. In a closed division when somebody wins, somebody else loses. (Brilliant, I know!) But it is particularly telling amongst the pro ranks because there is no where else to go and in the same way winning breeds success so too losing breeds failure. It is psychologically bruising and will tear a team apart faster than anything other than their bankroll disappearing. It's different for every player but there is a finite window in which to succeed before the player becomes damaged goods. It's why some older (not to say over the hill) players stick around. It's why teams bring in fresh blood. It's why teams with well regarded players never get over the hump. Losing takes it's toll. It's why every D1 team contemplating making the big move needs to think long and hard before making that commitment. Any team that makes the move before they learn how to win is stacking the odds in favor of failure. Any team that makes the move without internal and external leadership, confidence & determination is almost doomed to fail. Bravado is not confidence and there is no replacement for winning. Every player and team that steps up to the Pro challenge always says they are prepared to learn the necessary lessons the hard way but I would bet good money that most of them are utterly clueless. If I were counseling D1 teams on how to handle their bidness--and I am--I would strongly encourage every team learn the lessons that can be learned in D1 first and position yourselves to succeed as best you are able because once you make the move the clock starts ticking on your dreams. And the odds are you will fail.
Sunday, March 20, 2011
Arsenal Out Ducks In
Friday, February 25, 2011
The Lazy Slacker Re-post of the Week
It's not that I don't have items to post. I do. But the fact is I'm busy. Yes, I do in fact have a life. I know that may come as a surprise. Regardless, it's true so I'ma dump a re-post on you today and hope to get to more new content before too long. Besides, given the latest TV talk once again on the horizon today's re-post may be more timely than ever before. (If you want to check out the original comments the link to the Feb 2010 post is in the post title.)
THE GREAT DIVIDE
First appeared the moment–yes, the very moment–someone saw competitive paintball as sport and sport leading to money. That moment may not have arrived for everyone at precisely the same time but close enough for horse shoes and hand grenades. The initial efforts to position themselves to take advantage were the NXL and The 18. The NXL began as 10 franchise teams that owned equal shares of their league. The 18 was NPPL 1.0's response; the league restricted access to the pro division and structured the upper divisions to function kinda like UK soccer leagues with promotion and relegation. In both cases it was leagues and teams preparing for the next step in competitive paintball’s development; quasi-mainstream sports acceptance and outside granola. While we know how that’s worked out so far the great divide is something that isn’t often discussed though it still exists, and if we’re lucky, will one day be a real problem.
The NXL was modeled on mainline American sports; the 18 on European club sports. If the NXL had succeeded there would have been a single entity with multiple partners and a well worn path for growth and development, cooperation and profit sharing already built in. If the 18 had succeeded things likely wouldn’t have been as smooth and this is where the great divide comes in. NPPL 1.0 held all the cards, controlled promotion and relegation and but only offered a promise of trickle down success–if the league scores the TV prize "we" all win. Well, yes and no. The league certainly would have been a winner but no matter how you slice it the structure pitted the pro teams against the league in the effort to gain sponsors. And still does. It is the state that exists today and has existed since the league(s) went from sanctioning body to event promoter(s). And that conflict is the great divide. Ignored when times were flush, ignored when TV was right around the next corner and ignored until it was too late when the sponsor dollars stopped raining like pennies from heaven.
Today’s landscape is a little different, in some ways the roles are reversed. A different league has an ownership group made up of teams while the other has no answer for what comes with success–but it isn’t yet a meaningful great divide. NPPL 3.0 could be poised on the brink of success but it will only come from outside sponsors–but never did when there was more hoopla, more teams and more money committed to making it happen. Realistically all the teams’ own is the dream and the debts they are collecting operating a league on an outmoded model that features a dying format. But such is the potential power of the great divide. Some portion of the team owners want control, some want a sense of self-determination but all of them want a piece of the pie should a pie fall off the baker’s truck as it drives by. Regardless of the league all the pro teams have paid a price, some more than others, some for longer than others, and they don’t want to see their effort and contribution come to nothing. And should success in outside sponsors or TV or a billionaire philanthropist ever show up they feel like they’ve earned a share and that without them ultimate success is impossible. (If sporting success comes to any major league it will almost certainly benefit all eventually–but that’s another post.)
One can debate the relative merits but it’s almost irrelevant. The great divide isn’t going anywhere and should success come it could easily tear elite competitive paintball apart. (Not that we’re in danger of that particular fate at the moment.) Or, you know, it might be worth a minute or two to consider what sort of response would be reasonable and practical in the eventuality. Of course just because it’s not operating today the old NXL franchises still exist and who knows ... Or if worst came to worst others have managed with a players union. I’m just saying. It’s not a problem today but what if--
Btw, if you're a glutton for punishment or interested in some related paintball history there's a few pieces in the Dead Tree Archive that might interest you. Take a look at 'The Pro Dilemma' or 'New Pro Paradigm.' Or for specific on the leagues as they were, try 'The 18' and 'Living the Dream.'
Wednesday, August 4, 2010
Makes Me Go Hmmm
Planet's blog page--later picked up by ProPaintball--is reporting Tyler Harmon from XSV to Impact. What I'd like to know, just because I'm a snoop, is Tyler bailing on XSV or did Bart or P-E do something for XSV in exchange? And how much of a player in some of these recent moves is P-E? Billy B. to Dynasty also first appeared on Planet's blog page. (July 28th)
Friday, February 26, 2010
The Great Divide
The NXL was modeled on mainline American sports; the 18 on European club sports. If the NXL had succeeded there would have been a single entity with multiple partners and a well worn path for growth and development, cooperation and profit sharing already built in. If the 18 had succeeded things likely wouldn’t have been as smooth and this is where the great divide comes in. NPPL 1.0 held all the cards, controlled promotion and relegation and but only offered a promise of trickle down success–if the league scores the TV prize "we" all win. Well, yes and no. The league certainly would have been a winner but no matter how you slice it the structure pitted the pro teams against the league in the effort to gain sponsors. And still does. It is the state that exists today and has existed since the league(s) went from sanctioning body to event promoter(s). And that conflict is the great divide. Ignored when times were flush, ignored when TV was right around the next corner and ignored until it was too late when the sponsor dollars stopped raining like pennies from heaven.
Today’s landscape is a little different, in some ways the roles are reversed. A different league has an ownership group made up of teams while the other has no answer for what comes with success–but it isn’t yet a meaningful great divide. NPPL 3.0 could be poised on the brink of success but it will only come from outside sponsors–but never did when there was more hoopla, more teams and more money committed to making it happen. Realistically all the teams’ own is the dream and the debts they are collecting operating a league on an outmoded model that features a dying format. But such is the potential power of the great divide. Some portion of the team owners want control, some want a sense of self-determination but all of them want a piece of the pie should a pie fall off the baker’s truck as it drives by. Regardless of the league all the pro teams have paid a price, some more than others, some for longer than others, and they don’t want to see their effort and contribution come to nothing. And should success in outside sponsors or TV or a billionaire philanthropist ever show up they feel like they’ve earned a share and that without them ultimate success is impossible. (If sporting success comes to any major league it will almost certainly benefit all eventually–but that’s another post.)
One can debate the relative merits but it’s almost irrelevant. The great divide isn’t going anywhere and should success come it could easily tear elite competitive paintball apart. (Not that we’re in danger of that particular fate at the moment.) Or, you know, it might be worth a minute or two to consider what sort of response would be reasonable and practical in the eventuality. Of course just because it’s not operating today the old NXL franchises still exist and who knows ... Or if worst came to worst others have managed with a players union. I’m just saying. It’s not a problem today but what if--
Btw, if you're a glutton for punishment or interested in some related paintball history there's a few pieces in the Dead Tree Archive that might interest you. Take a look at 'The Pro Dilemma' or 'New Pro Paradigm.' Or for specific on the leagues as they were, try 'The 18' and 'Living the Dream.'
Wednesday, February 24, 2010
In the Aftermath
Whatever happens with the Infamous roster there's gonna be a number of players out of a gig and I want to know whose in, whose out and who moved to a new team. What do you know and when did you know it?
Monday, January 18, 2010
Pro* files in Paintball
Even so, there are perhaps a few things VFTD can do to fill in a gap or two. In the past one of the things the magazines did was help make the pro players accessible and elevate some of the pros to star status--within the confines of the paintball community anyway. Not only doesn't that happen today but the majority of competitive players probably don't even know who most of the top players are anymore. And in an era where teams as brands and players as personalities matters maybe more than ever before VFTD is interested in doing pro player profiles as a regular feature. Once a week or twice a month maybe. As a reader if you'd like to see the profiles say so. If you currently are or recently have been on a pro roster and are willing to participate drop me a line at Baca's email. (Link at the top of the sidebar.) My idea is to include a picture, a bio brief and a short list of questions to be answered. It's not huge, it's not complicated and it's not comprehensive. I won't be doing life stories but it will be a start. If there's enough interest I have a few other ideas for ways to expand on the theme. Player (& team) participation is essential. I can't make you do it so it's in your hands.
Saturday, October 24, 2009
Name That American
VFTD needs your help to do a couple of things. 1--name that American. Who are the players and who are they playing for? VFTD would like to compile a list of the Americans playing for other teams around the world and everyone who helps (by contributing info in comments) will qualify for a special VFTD prize drawing.
The other thing VFTD is interested in is how these arrangements are made. VFTD assumes that most of the time these deals are facilitated by shared sponsors. Help a blogger out and get entered into the special prize drawing.
UPDATE: While it comes as no surprise that y'all are a pack of lazy slackers I am somewhat surprised by either the near total lack of information on this topic out there or the complete indifference in which it is considered. Or perhaps both. I get why Americans yawn at over which players are playing the Mil but is the so-called growing Euro-parity really just anonymous Americans and European self-deception? Say it isn't so.
Thursday, May 7, 2009
The X-Factor
The reasons for this are straightforward; the fundamentals of a successful team are skills, leadership, chemistry, consistency and heart, not necessarily in that order. Beyond that all competitive teams are like sharks, they need to be moving all the time, in fact, they are moving all the time and if it isn't moving forward it is going backwards whether anyone is aware of it or not in that moment. It is the unavoidable fact of competitive life; there is no standing still.
A failure or breakdown in any one area can frequently be overcome or made up for but as soon as two or more areas are in flux it is almost always a problem, and often a big problem. And in competitive paintball it is hard to sustain a team under any circumstances, even a good team and in the current environment there are a number of factors conspiring to make it more difficult that usual. If you've played tourney ball for any length of time it's easy to tick off the names of teams that have come and gone. The list of teams that have come and stayed is a very short one.
Right now one of the bigger issues impacting the pro game is practice--or the lack thereof because of reduced resources. Less paint, less practice. No paint, no practice. No practice and the edges start to dull. The commitment required doesn't have a direction. The desire and motivation to keep grinding and grinding with a purpose is frustrated. And before long the team, any team, begins to break down.
Even in the best of times things happen; players get jobs, go to school, lose motivation after they succeed. Team relationships and dynamics change and the reality is the difference between success and failure is often hard to impossible to define in the first place much less diagnose with the intention to try and fix. Most of the time the best anyone can do is focus on the essentials and hope the pieces fall into place. And when they do, take every advantage because chances are it won't last all that long.
Today some people see teams like X-Factor and Impact uncharacteristically struggling compared to where they were before and they are ready to write them off or diminish real past accomplishments in light of current difficulties and that's just plain stupid. Btw, I'm not suggesting everyone who runs down a pro team or player (or a rival team or player) should maybe have a little more respect or think before they yap. There are, after all, limits to what even VFTD can accomplish but I am suggesting there is a lot of sense in the old adage that it's better to remain silent and be taken for a fool than to open your mouth and remove all doubt.
Friday, March 27, 2009
Paintball Stuff
Of course I'm sure you realize that the non-response is, in fact, an answer. Plainly the PSP doesn't want to be locked into a position--which means they want to keep the option open of dropping the top ROF.
USPL HB is a week away. Registration is officially closed. Some of you are wondering why I have gone all Stepford on the USPL lately. Where's the criticism, I'm asked, that I busted out early on when the new league was first announced? A couple of things; one, I decided, due to my team affiliation, I had an obligation not to appear to be running down the league while it tries to get off the ground and, two, I like competing leagues and always have–even in this environment. I'm not sure it's possible but, hey. Anyway, after the event I will do a review of the league and its prospects.
PSP is putting the finishing touches on the language that will allow pro rosters to carry a reserve player, sort of. Official word should reach the pro teams shortly. It's not nearly as useful as a simple bump in roster size would have been and doubtless will include some new (and inane) classification rigmarole.
Picking up where Mr. Curious left off last time I wonder how the leagues will resolve the "is he or isn't he" a pro player dealio that is almost sure to come up some time. See, PSP only recognizes pro division Race 2-7 rostered players as "pros" but the USPL has a whole separate batch of their own "pro" players. In the past one league mostly ignored the other league's players unless they were forced to do something. However, this time they's all in the APPA database and if they play both leagues ... well, it could get interesting.
Stay thirsty, my friends
Friday, January 23, 2009
Burning Question
Tuesday, January 6, 2009
Semi-Pro Dilemma: Gateway or Stranglehold?
Here's the deal: The changes made at the top of the PSP food chain are intended to be versatile and perform a number of roles. The reduced rosters are economical and exclusive in the hopes of helping teams reduce costs and firmly establish the pro players as the elite of the sport. The reduced races and match times are economical and logistically economical in furthering the cost reduction effort and allowing the PSP to utilize the former NXL field and refs more efficiently with the addition of a semi-pro division. Semi-pro provides a place for previously disenfranchised (by the classification rules) players a place to play as well as being the gateway to pro status.
Gateway to what? Huh? The plan is to restrict player movement into the pro ranks by limiting the pool of eligible players to those with at least a year of semi-pro experience. The notion is this will help validate the status of the pro ranked player to only those truly deserving--whatever that means. And keep out the three week riff-raff. You know, the guys who get picked up for whatever reason, make a few practices, go to an event but don't stick. They are dragging the whole pro mystique down--and they are more or less out of luck if they want to keep playing tourney ball.
The problem arises when you start thinking about how this will actually play out. You see, the PSP wants the pros to be elite. They also want the pro division to reflect as much of the country as possible as well. They'd also like stability and continuity. (And a much healthier bank account but who wouldn't?)
How stable is an 8 man roster? How many injuries or sudden emergencies does it take to cripple a team's ability to compete? How does a pro team with 8 players replace lost players or players who have lost it? Particularly during the season. Easy. They raid the semi-pro bracket or they install a sister or farm team in the semi-pro bracket. Of course that presumes either a regionally local semi-pro team you can steal players from (one that won't be too bothered in the process) or else finding a player you now have to bring in from outside--with all the associated expenses. If you've got a semi-pro farm team you're fine but how is being pushed into operating two teams more economical than last year's roster limit? Damage goes from a comfortable 11 man roster to contemplating adding another team. I can practically smell the savings.
Longer term what happens with the normal player attrition to relatively isolated pro teams? Where does X-Factor get new players if there is no semi-pro team in Texas? You may be saving a few bucks today but in the future an X-Factor would cease to be a Texas team or even a team period. Pay now or pay later (with interest.) Or perhaps the semi-pro teams are intended to replace the worn out pro teams who would end up in that position because the current plan pushed them into breaking up and disappearing. [Fact is the league wants stability and elite status pros so they don't want to kill teams off after their utility ends, but ... ]
In any event the only new pros going to anybody's team come from the semi-pro ranks which creates a bottleneck not only in the upward movement of talent, it also creates a bottleneck in the development of that talent and none, zero, nada, zip concern has been given to the future distribution of that talent. It isn't a gateway to pro level play, it's a choke hold on pro paintball, period.
Wait, let's see about making the bottleneck even worse by having 16 pro teams and only 8 semi-pro. (Which is a distinct if uncertain possibility.) Every problem that exists with the original plan is multiplied by a pro heavy ratio of teams and if any of the pro teams also control any of the remaining semi-pro teams the league will have simply exchanged one concern over unequal advantage into a different concern over unequal advantage. (As it stands now regardless of roster size dollars remains the great divider just as it does in other pro sports where the Yankees can afford [maybe] to pay three guys more than the entire rosters of most of the other pro baseball teams.) And it will also create an unnatural scarcity among pro players that will push pro teams to buy talent instead of develop talent. In any event the nature of the pro game has certain inherent costs given what the league is attempting to establish that cannot be avoided.
This is not just a team issue. It is a league issue because the league's decisions have been the driving force behind the present (and future) circumstances. So far the most creative answers involve playing less paintball -- and in the long run that isn't going to be good for anybody.
UPDATE: For the short attention span crowd see if this makes sense. The PSP intends to limit player eligibility to play on a pro team to players with at least one year semi-pro experience. So new pro players can only come from an existing semi-pro roster as soon as this plan is implemented. Say, the beginning of 2010 season? With short pro rosters there is no way to stock or develop back-ups and in fact there is no way to even prepare for emergencies or injuries. This year if your roster takes a hit you play short until you can replace that player. Either way it's gonna be a new guy unless you have a farm team or sister team. Last year the pros had rosters capable of holding a couple of extra players. This year it's add a second team or go raiding. Next year it's have a second team--is that really an economical move over a slightly larger roster? -- or steal a semi-pro player from an established semi-pro team. Longer term, in a 12 team league there are 96 pro players. In a 12 team semi-pro division there are between 96 - 110 players. If 4 of the pro teams have sister semi-pro teams that means the total pool of possible replacement pro players for the remaining 8 pro teams is 64 - 80. That's all. Then think about what happens to a Midwest or Texas or Florida or New England pro team that has no regional semi-pro team nearby. It means anytime those pro teams need new players they can only replace losses from the semi-pros and pretty soon large chunks of rosters are from all over assuming you can pull players away from their previous team. And since the number of players available to fill pro spots is artificially restricted it puts a premium on those players. In the end this plan will force teams to start second teams or pay players from out of their area or disband. None of which sounds like it's going to improve the bottom line of the pro teams.
Monday, December 8, 2008
New Look Pro
I'm writing this based on a couple of assumptions. That the PSP has an interest in maintaining a pro division that serves as the pinnacle of competition paintball. And, that the ultimate goal remains the mainstreaming of competition paintball. (Or, as I prefer, the "selling" of paintball.) Even if there is now a willingness to take a more incremental approach than in the past. You know, actually build the game.
It will be interesting--to me anyway--to see what comes out of the Vegas meeting (apparently not everything that happens in Vegas stays in Vegas) with respect to the pro game and the rumored semi-pro or open division. The news could also be exciting or disappointing or horrifying.
Four issues strike me as being most significant. One (1), changes to the actual on field competition. Two (2), changes to the rules (ROF & penalties for example) and/or practices of the PSP. Three (3), the 'lost' generation of players who may be too good to play. Four (4), the relationship, if any, that the league fosters with the pro teams.
Regarding point 3 there already exists a lost generation of players. Back in July I discussed the issue as it related to D1 here, here and here. And with the prospect of a single national league and a limited (locked?) pro division there exists the potential for a glut of pro ranked players looking for a place to play. I expect this to be addressed by either adding a new division or turning D1 back to an Open division. The core problem is that if the issue isn't handled well the league may end up squandering the skills and motivation to compete of a lot of players [who also have the potential to make a valuable contribution to the game]--and unintentionally send a counterproductive message to all the lower division teams--your motivation and desire to be the best you can be will drive you out of our league.
Point 4 is the critical issue. How it is addressed, or if it is addressed, will be reflected in the choices made related to points one and two. Last year's changes proved less than effective for a couple of reasons. One reason was a miscalculation of what would make a real difference and the second was because no decision made last off season altered in any significant way the relationship of the pro teams to the league--it remained fundamentally adversarial. (That's a 'loaded' term but I don't mean to attach any negative connotation.) In my view that miscalculation was a direct result of the nature of the relationship. It is also my view that until the relationship is altered many of the changes that will be made (or have been made) will not serve their intended purpose.
Regarding point 1 the relevant aspect here is do choices made now lock the league (and the teams and the players) into a version of not-gonna-call-it-xball-anymore that is less than optimum? And is less a showcase of the sport and just generally less. Less may be unavoidable for the time being but my concern is that these choices will be put forward as beneficial to the teams but will only result in compromising the potential of the game.
Point 2 is mostly a subset of 1 but is also intended to cover stuff like the release of field layouts, etc. The pertinent question with any changes made in this category is do they benefit only the league or only the teams or some combination. Another area of concern is that the league sees a need to economize and in that process simply shifts some additional burden to the teams either unintentionally or in the guise of helping them. For example the changes made last year reduced field time for most lower div teams with no changes or increases in cost. Or the NXL maintaining their operational decisions on the backs of the competing teams even with a substantially altered game.
As to how this plays out on the field an xball lite variant at the pro level will result in lost strategic and tactical options. [I'll explain how another time.] It will almost certainly also result in more cautious, less exciting play and increase the potential for poor officiating to impact the outcome of matches.
Once the official announcements are made the VFTD will break them down in detail but until then it's difficult to be more specific.
Tuesday, November 11, 2008
Pro Ball Blues
The comment that inspired this post asked if it was possible pro players might have to start paying for things, like paint. I'm going to use the NXL situation but it's not just an NXL problem. PBReserve has reported on related factors in recent months like Procaps getting tough regarding overages, the Procaps / Archon (Zap) merge--which effectively took the Zap brand off the market--and the rumor GAP may consider closing up shop. (While other unsubstantiated rumors suggest at least one paint maker is currently on the block.)
The NXL began the season with 12 teams and finished with 10. Is it coincidence that the two that dropped out were Procaps teams? Maybe. I don't know but I do know a little something about pro teams and paint usage.
This past season the NXL had 3 factory teams and 9 independents. You could argue that either Infamous and Aftershock were both factory or neither were so I split the difference. You could also argue a better distinction is franchise / non-franchise--in which case you'd be wrong. End of the day what matters here is money and the motivation to spend it.
Two indies crashed and burned before season's end. Of the remaining independents 2 are shoestring operations that survived last year's team losses getting by on the minimum and 3 others have a single principle benefactor. None of them, including Dynasty, got the level of sponsorship you think they got--although Dynasty, as the only legit brand among the indies, was head and shoulders above the rest.
So how much paint do they use? I'm gonna keep the numbers simple and the totals low. Each event every team plays a minimum of 5 matches. Figure 20 cases a match. Since the prelims got screwed up the last two events let's skip Sunday usage altogether and call it even. The result is 200K per team per event or 1 million for the season. For practice let's say 2 a month at 50 cases per (and that's low paint usage for a typical two day practice.) The result is another 2 million balls. There's 3 million balls used in one league based on very modest numbers and MOST of the NXL teams didn't get 3 mil or more freebies this past year. Now start your calculations for those teams playing both leagues and it isn't hard to see that something is going to give.
Does this mean pro players are gonna have to start paying for stuff? In some cases it probably will but there are still a couple of problems with that scenario. One, it simply transfers the cost from team to players and Two, the majority of pro players are chosen on their ability to play, not pay. As it stands now if the pro game is too expensive for the current teams it's going to be too expensive for the players and simply shifting the burden likely means pro ranks populated by wealthier, not better, players. Alternatively some mix of costs might work for some teams and players but doesn't do anything to address the larger issues.
(Incidentally, this is why I recommended last year in the off season that field layouts NOT be released prior to events. The reasoning was it would force teams to find alternative, less paint intensive ways to prepare, among other virtues.)
What it is going to boil down to is what value does PBIndustry and the Big Leagues place on the pro game--as it exists now--and can they afford to keep it alive as the pinnacle of competitive paintball? My view is the current system will not sustain the current teams and the current environment does not promote the creation of new pro caliber teams to take their place. Which is why I'm advocating looking for creative ways to change the system.
Of course it could be we'll all just have to take our lumps. Long term the game isn't going anywhere even if some of us lose out in the short term.
Happy happy joy joy
Sunday, November 2, 2008
Reality Seldom Takes a Holiday
No disrespect to Kenny who is a fine player but if he thinks the credit market is tight now he ought to take a close look at the opportunities available at the pro level in paintball. Especially those that offer compensation above and beyond playing ball. I could list around 50 pro players who lost their spots in the last year or so and most of them aren't playing today, for compensation or otherwise.
I hope Kenny gets what he wants but the point I want to make is aimed at all the ballers out there dreaming of playing pro ball one day. Whatever you've read on the internet or seen in the magazines or heard from a friend of a cousin of the girlfriend of one of the Dynarats if you're playing this game for any reason other than you love it you will be disappointed. Don't give up on the dream but understand that the opportunities are shrinking because the money to support teams and players is shrinking and isn't likely to get better any time soon. Play for the right reasons and you'll seldom be disappointed and everything else will be gravy.