Sunday, January 1, 2012
Burning Questions, 2012 Edition
Since December was Baca's Mailbag month at VFTD (the blog) everything else was either tweeted (@VFTD) or posted up on VFTD (the Facebook page). Try to keep up.
The first burning questions of 2012: (feel free to add your own)
If Impact sticks with their rumored plan to play only NPPL this season will their players be allowed to play elsewhere in the other leagues? And if so, who should play where?
Will there be an Aftershock in 2012?
How many pro teams fail to answer the bell at the start of the season?--(whenever that might be in individual cases.)
Will HydroTec finally roll out there water ball this year? Did you see the latest HydroTec video? [h/t Facefull on Twitter] Can you say desperately trying to remain relevant? Still, the sheet of half shells filled was kinda cool but I don't remember hearing a release date in there anywhere, did you?
Over in Euroland will there be as many defections from the closed division ranks as there were last year? And after scouring far and wide for replacements last year where will the new crop come from?
Tuesday, December 13, 2011
Mailbag Extra: Deep Water Edition
This is two separate questions and I expect to have more info related to small ball soon so today's extra is about HydroTec. (Another mailbag question came over the transom recently that got me digging into something else that might provide some answers soon.)
If you've been following HydroTec you know (from tweets & their website) that they continue to stall while claiming to be working away diligently on things like paint seams and color combos, etc. Which is probably true but there is also speculation that there are other, primary causes at work. Around the time of the public disclosure of the HydroTec water-based paintball project there were rumors that one or more of the major paint suppliers would likely file suit against HydroTec if for no other reason than to impede their delivery to market. In the case of KEE the rumors swirled around the past employment of Mr. Ronnie Bayless who worked, in the past, on a number of paintball-related projects for R.P.Scherer and others. The rumored wedge was something on the order of proprietary knowledge and systems belonging to KEE via RP (included in the purchase/merger of PMI & National) given that Mr. Bayless was (then) employed by HydroTec.
The latest rumorology claims KEE never filed suit against HydroTec but did present them with a cease & desist order. Further the latest rumors claim Mr. Bayless no longer works for HydroTec but just when that relationship was severed (if in fact it has been--the website gives no indication it has) remains unclear. And finally rumors hint at a growing dissatisfaction with HydroTec's progress, or lack thereof, from a principle investor that VFTD reported last year was rumored to be Kraft Foods or a subsidiary company. VFTD has not confirmed that rumor but it continues in play in the deep background.
HydroTec is nearly a year behind their originally announced roll out date of January 2011 with no end in sight.
Friday, July 22, 2011
Is HydroTec (finally) Coming?
You may recall the fanfare and skepticism with which early reports of a largely water-based, new technology paintball were initially received last year and latterly the announced intention of a general release last fall--and the Paintball Extravaganza presentation, etc. Followed by delays in the actual roll out and distribution of the new paintball. The last official statements from HydroTec (and linked to on their website) came from a podcast interview on (BRWP) Blast Radius Woodsball Podcasts towards the end of May 2011. The word at that time was that issues with vendors & custom tooling, software, etc. had caused the delays but was largely resolved and they were 95% of the way to having their first production line operational. I mention it because it appears to lend credence to the claim that Mr. C ferreted out recently. That HydroTec will be putting paint on sale around the 15th of August. (After all the past delays it may be HydroTec is a bit gun shy about making a formal announcement too early but August 15th is less than a month away.)
The other half of what Mr. C dug up is the supposed "real" story behind the delays--and is, at this point, pure rumorology. In any event it's intriguing speculation and a glimpse into the sort of inside paintball shens that occur with perhaps more regularity than one might imagine. The story is that one of the principles at HydroTec , Mr. Ronnie Bayless , (and here the details get murky) was either still under contract or bound by the terms of a non-compete for work done as (an employee?) a contractor for one of the paintball giants, who might have objected and invoked the possibility of legal recourse. Mr. Bayless has had ties to the paintball manufacturing biz for many years first working for RP Scherer back in the early 90s. And the rest of the story is that the term of his contract/non-compete expire the first week of August.
Is HydroTec finally coming to market? Did the looming threat of a lawsuit delay the release or was it, as claimed, developmental delays as a new system was built from the ground up?
Sunday, August 22, 2010
Paintball Wars: Is Armageddon on the Horizon?
Can HydroTec deliver? What happens to the marketplace--and the current manufacturers (of old tech paintballs)--if a new, better and cheaper paintball is introduced? What happens to Paintball? That's the multi-million dollar question.
The Players: the old guard (everybody making the traditional paintball including the return of Richmond Italia.) Includes KEE, DXS and a surprising number of smaller manufacturers around the world despite the North American corporate consolidation efforts (ZAP, X.O., etc.) and companies like GAP & Severe closing down. The new kid on the block, HydroTec (particularly with the rumored support of Kraft Foods) instantly gains credibility--though the proof is in the as-yet-unseen, untested product.
The Game: roughly speaking it's market share, at least for the big players. They have, by and large, gone the route of competing by price (and the economy of scale) although it's not even close to being that simple. Paintballs produced in Asia & India do have a production cost edge certainly on North American manufacturers and probably on Eurokids as well. But proximity matters in terms of shipping costs, currency exchange rates and even the delivered quality of the product. As does high end quality in a portion of the market and the effective reach of a manufacturer's distribution arm. What it amounts to is there are a myriad of factors involved beyond just making paint. The important thing to keep in mind is that in today's paint market there is a balance between quality and cost and the competition over sales is predominantly by price.
The Outcome: Whether HydroTec will kick off a new, hot paintball war is dependant on the quality of the new paintball--from shell consistency, breaking characteristics, marking ability, etc.--and the wholesale pricing structure. That, and their ability to deliver product in a timely manner. Let us assume for the moment the new paintball is as advertised; the functional equal of current paintball tech at something in the neighborhood of half the manufacturing cost. That would put HydroTec in the driver's seat but still leave some wiggle room for the old guard.
How would HydroTec play it? I had assumed the big players would look for opportunities to file lawsuits in hopes of delaying or inhibiting a HydroTec rollout. One source reasonably close to the situation doesn't think there's any room for legal maneuvering. I'll believe that when I don't see it. Basically HydroTec will have two ways of playing this. They can take on the established players by undercutting their best prices and still make a profit as they build a distribution network. And/or they can establish their superiority and then be open to negotiate licensing agreements, perhaps with flagship manufacturers in key regions around the world.
The Fallout: Again, assuming the new paintball is as claimed a variety of things are likely to result. It could be a real boon for competitive paintball where cheaper paint could have a real impact on a player's and/or team's ability to compete. It will almost certainly force the old guard's big players to try and match the technology. It's an open question if HydroTec can "protect" a water-based paintball--as opposed to patenting the process--but it leaves the potential for a small window of opportunity to the old guard. In the meantime even a brilliant success from HydroTec will take time to build up its manufacturing volume and distribution network which is where the old guard's big players find that window of opportunity; in the time it will take for HydroTec to take control of the market. Regardless of how HydroTec works out (or doesn't) the same basic tensions will continue to exist between wholesale cost and end user customer cost. A cheaper case of paint at the wholesale level eases some of the pressure on higher volume retailers and could allow for improved margins but as with the promises of small ball when the retailer benefits that savings isn't, for the most part, passed on to the customer. Or, if the savings are passed along to the customer the current debate over how the local field should operate will continue unabated. To say nothing of what happens to established PBIndustry giants if they can't compete with the new paintball.

