Wednesday, January 14, 2009

Promoting Mediocrity: Logan's Run cont.

Remember the alternatives to the PSP's classification system I promised? Yeah, yeah, it's still coming but maybe not today.
The place where the PSP and I diverge is that I think they're crazy and I know I'm right. But that's not very helpful, is it? Let's try this another way. (Btw, I use PSP instead of individual names to smear the innocent and the guilty alike.)

The PSP has a vision of how and why players should move through the ranks and what that ought to look like conceptually. I'm mostly convinced that conception isn't possible and that in the process major league paintball will push some of the most dedicated players out of the game. It isn't intentional. Nor is it ill-considered. But I could be wrong.
It's numbers time! PSP says it is only promoting 15% of D3 players with the new classification rules. Which in raw numbers is accurate. 122 teams of D3 players played at least one event so if 20 teams are moved up it's 15%. Here's some more numbers. If a single team playing a single event equals 1 event experience unit then all D3 teams in 2008 earned 217 experience units. So, did the 15% being promoted play 15% of the D3 paintball in '08? Not even close, they played 36% of all the D3 paintball in '08. And the 15% being promoted constitute around 48% of all teams that played more than one event. As a practical matter PSP is promoting 36% of all the D3 experience and nearly 50% of all D3 teams that demonstrate the desire and capacity to play multiple events.
The next relevant number is 55. 55 is the mean average score given the range of 10 - 100. In any given single event if there is an odd number of competing teams there will be an equal number of teams above and below 55. And if you multiple 55 by 3 you get the score required to be promoted to D2, 165. That means if you play 3 events and are the perfect middle score the PSP deems you are good enough to be D2. In my world it means you are the very definition of an average D3 team.
There is one more way to look at the numbers. At NEO the NCPA All Stars scored a 67 and finished 12th. At WC Misfit Toyz scored 67 and finished 24th. What this means is the seed points assigned are purely a relational function of the total number of participants. This also means the scores do not reflect a consistent value team to team, event to event. Btw, assuming a static roster the NCPA All-Stars will be promoted to D2 with a best event score over the course of the season of 67.
Is the PSP really only promoting 15%? Or is it 36%? Or closer to 50%? Are they promoting the stable core out of D3 only to wonder later on why D3 is suddenly struggling? Or will that just be the bad economy? What happens up and down the league when you keep promoting ordinary teams?

More next time.


raehl said...

The NCPA All-Stars were towards the bottom of the cut. Are they good enough to win D2? I doubt it. Are they too good to stay in D3? You bet. They had their season to play against other new teams, and now it's time to move on.

Or, put another way, why is the lowest division the right place for average teams? Don't average teams belong in an average division, like, say, D2?

Baca Loco said...

That's far sillier than your usual argument. There are average teams in every division because divisions make distinctions--and one hopes, provides the most equitable competitive environment for the most teams and players. It is so patently disingenuous I hope you had trouble typing it but what I really fear is your near complete lack of understanding much of anything about competitive paintball may mean you actually think you made a valid point.